To meet the increase in energy demand, many developing countries, such as Madagascar, have turned to fossil fuels for electricity generation. This dependence has a significant environmental impact. Moreover, in Madagascar, the current electricity mix does not allow for stable and serene economic development. Thus, in order to discuss an energy planning strategy of the territory, this paper intends to analyze the past trends of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in Madagascar over the 1990-2015 period. In this study, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method is used to first quantify the driving forces of changes by examining past trends. Then, the combination of the LMDI with Kaya's identity through the concept of IPAT, allows us to link CO2 emissions to anthropogenic activity. This makes it possible to define Madagascar's future energy needs and the distribution of associated consumption by 2030. Starting from the classic business-as-usual trend scenario, two other scenarios have been implemented. The two cases selected come from Madagascar's new energy planning visions (NPE and IEM). The impact of political instability is discussed from the perspective of energy consumption and the economy.