Ultraviolet Radiation evolution during the 21st century

Kévin Lamy 1 Béatrice Josse 2 Thierry Portafaix 1 Hassan Bencherif 1 Sophie Godin-Beekmann 3 Colette Brogniez 4 N. L. Abraham 5 H. Akiyoshi 6 A. T. Archibald 5 Slimane Bekki 3 N. Butchart 7 Martyn P. Chipperfield 8 R. Currie 5 Glauco Di Genova 9 R. R. Garcia 10 Makoto Deushi 11 Sandip Dhomse 8 B. N. Duncan 12 M. I. Hegglin 13 L. W. Horowitz 14 P. Jöckel 15 D. Kinnison 10 J. F. Lamarque 10 M. Y. Lin 14 E. Mancini 16 Marion Marchand 3 Virginie Marécal 2 M. Michou 2 Olaf Morgenstern 17 F. M. O'Connor 7 T. Nagashima 6 L. D. Oman 12 G. Pitari 16 D. Plummer 18 J. A. Pyle 5 Laura E. Revell 19, 20 E. Rozanov 19 D. Saint-Martin 2 J. F. Scinocca 18 A. Stenke 19 S. E. Strahan 12 K. Stone 21 K. Sudo 22 T. Y. Tanaka 11 S. Tilmes 10 Y. Yamashita 6 K. Yoshida 11 G. Zeng 23
1 LACy - Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones
2 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
3 STRATO - LATMOS
LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales
4 LOA - Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518
5 Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK]
6 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
7 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
8 SEE - School of Earth and Environment [Leeds]
9 UNIVAQ - University of L'Aquila [Italy]
10 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
11 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
12 GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
13 Department of Meteorology [Reading]
14 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
15 IPA - DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
16 Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche [L'Aquila]
17 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder]
18 Environment and Climate Change Canada
19 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
20 Bodeker Scientific
21 School of Earth Sciences [Melbourne]
22 Graduate School of Environmental Studies [Nagoya]
23 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Auckland]
Abstract : In the context of a changing climate, the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation [Butchart 2014] leads to a decrease of the ozone total column in the tropics. This decrease affects directly surface ultraviolet radiation, which are already very high in this area. Following the work of (Bais et al., 2011), (Butchart, 2014) and (Hegglin & Shepherd, 2009) on the future evolution of surface irradiance derived from Chemistry Climate Models (CCM) projections, we projected here surface irradiance from 2010 to 2100 with focus on the tropics. We used the latest chemistry climate projection exercise ; Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) coupled with a radiative transfer model (TUV (Madronich, 1993)) to calculate the evolution of surface Ultraviolet radiation throughout the 21st century. Ultraviolet Index (UVi) has been specifically considered (McKenzie, Matthews, & Johnston, 1991). At first, simulation from RefC2 Chemistry Climate Model Initiative have been coupled with a radiative transfer model, in order to obtained modeled UV index (UVi-M). UVi-M is then compared against available satellite ultraviolet radiation observations (OMI OMUVbd product) between 2005 and 2016. Statistical difference and variance have been analysed versus different parameters: geographical location, model or ensemble of model outputs used in the radiative transfer calculation.
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Kévin Lamy, Béatrice Josse, Thierry Portafaix, Hassan Bencherif, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, et al.. Ultraviolet Radiation evolution during the 21st century. CCMI 2017, Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Science Workshop, Jun 2017, Toulouse, France. ⟨hal-01648231⟩

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