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A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Joshua Eli Cinner 1 Morgan Stuart Pratchett 1 Nicholas Anthony James Graham 1 Vanessa Messmer 1 Mariana Menezes Prata Bezerra Fuentes 1, 2 Tracy Ainsworth 1 Natalie Ban 3, 1 Line Kolind Bay 1, 4 Jessica Blythe 1, 5 Delphine Dissard 6, 1 Simon Dunn 1 Louisa Evans 1, 7 Michael Fabinyi 1 Pedro Fidelman 1 Joana Figueiredo 1, 8 Ashley John Frisch 1 Christopher John Fulton 1 Christina Chemtai Hicks 9, 1 Vimoksalehi Lukoschek 1 Jennie Mallela 1 Aurélie Moya 1 Lucie Penin 1, 10 Jodie Lynn Rummer 1 Stefan Walker 1 David Hall Williamson 1
1 CoralCoE - ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
2 EOAS - Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science [Tallahassee]
3 School of Environmental Studies
4 AIMS Townsville - Australian Institute of Marine Science [Townsville]
5 WorldFish
6 BTP - Biogéochimie-Traceurs-Paléoclimat
LOCEAN - Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques
7 Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK.
8 NSU - Nova Southeastern University
9 Stanford University [Stanford]
10 ENTROPIE [Réunion] - Ecologie marine tropicale dans les Océans Pacifique et Indien
Abstract : Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.
Keywords : Multiple impacts Social–ecological Coral reef Climate change
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Joshua Eli Cinner, Morgan Stuart Pratchett, Nicholas Anthony James Graham, Vanessa Messmer, Mariana Menezes Prata Bezerra Fuentes, et al.. A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems. Regional Environmental Change, Springer Verlag, 2016, 16 (4), pp.1133--1146. ⟨10.1007/s10113-015-0832-z⟩. ⟨hal-01306704⟩

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