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Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE

Christelle Barthe 1, 2 Olivier Bousquet 1, 3 Soline Bielli 1 Pierre Tulet 1, 2 Joris Pianezze 1 Marine Claeys 1, 4 Chia-Lun Tsai 1, 5 Callum Thompson 1 François Bonnardot 6 Fabrice Chauvin 4 Julien Cattiaux 4 Marie-Noëlle Bouin 4, 7 Vincent Amelie 8 Guilhem Barruol 9, 10 Radiance Calmer 1, 11 Stéphane Ciccione 12 Emmanuel Cordier 13 Quoc-Phi Duong 1 Jonathan Durand 1 Frauke Fleischer-Dogley 14 Romain Husson 15 Edouard Lees 1 Sylvie Malardel 1 Nicolas Marquestaut 1, 13 Alberto Mavume 16 Dominique Mékiès 1 Alexis Mouche 7 Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson 17 Bruno Razafindradina 18 Elisa Rindraharisaona 9, 10 Gregory Roberts 4, 19 Manvendra Singh 20 Lova Zakariasy 18 Jonas Zucule 21 
Abstract : The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term.
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Christelle Barthe, Olivier Bousquet, Soline Bielli, Pierre Tulet, Joris Pianezze, et al.. Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE. Atmosphere, MDPI 2021, 12 (6), pp.689. ⟨10.3390/atmos12060689⟩. ⟨hal-03242979⟩



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