Choc des termes de l'échange et balance courante : une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998)

Abstract : The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of temporary terms of trade shocks on the private savings and the current account of the French economy. Using an inter-temporel framework which distinguishes agents’ consumption for three types of goods (importables, exportables and non-tradables), an estimation in two stages leads to the calculation of intra-temporal and inter-temporal elasticities of substitution which explain current account fluctuations. The estimated values of these parameters are rela- tively low in France, so that substitution effects do not compensate inter-temporal smooth- ing of consumption effects. Consequently, an adverse and unanticipated terms of trade shock deteriorates the current account of the French economy.
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Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop. Choc des termes de l'échange et balance courante : une estimation des effets de substitution en France (1972-1998). Economie Internationale-La revue du CEPII-La documentation française, 2001, 86 (2), pp.27-47. ⟨hal-01618699⟩

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