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Intermittency of Global Solar Radiation over Reunion island : Daily Mapping Prediction Model and Multifractal Parameters

Abstract : Due to the heterogeneous and rapidly-changing cloudiness, tropical islands, such as Reunion Island in the South-west Indian Ocean (SWIO), have significant solar resource that is highly variable from day-to-day. In this study, we propose a new approach for deterministic prediction of daily surface solar radiation (SSR) maps based on four linear regression models: multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), and stepwise regression (SR), that we have applied on the SARAH-E@5km satellite data (CM SAF) for the period during 2007-2016. To improve the accuracy of prediction, the multifractal parameters (H,C_1 and α) are proposed to include as new predictors in the predictive model. These parameters are obtained from the analysis of SSR intermittency based on arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis. This analysis is the extension of Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) and it is used to estimate the generalized scaling exponent ξ(q). It is the combination of the Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert spectral analysis (EMD+HSA). In a first step, the multifractal analysis is applied onto one-second SSR measurements form a SPN1 pyranometer in Moufia in 2016. The mean sub-daily, daily and seasonal daily multifractal patterns are derived, and the scaling exponent ξ(q) is analyzed. In a second step, the intermittency study is conducted on one-minute SSR measurements from a SPN1 network with 11 stations in 2014. The spatial patterns for all the stations with the multifractal parameters H,C_1 and α are shown. The variability of singularity spectrum width is considered to study the spatial intermittency at the daily and seasonal scale. Based on this intermittency analysis from measurements at several stations, the universal multifractal parameters (H,C_1 and α) could be taken as new predictors for indicating the multifractal properties of SSR.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, December 4, 2018 - 10:28:31 AM
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Li Qi. Intermittency of Global Solar Radiation over Reunion island : Daily Mapping Prediction Model and Multifractal Parameters. Physics [physics]. Université de la Réunion, 2018. English. ⟨NNT : 2018LARE0016⟩. ⟨tel-01943744⟩

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