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The Zero Effect of Income Tax on the Timing of Birth: Some Evidence on French Data

Abstract : The present paper investigates the correlation between the French tax rebate triggered by the birth of a child and the probability to bring forward childbirth from late December to early January. Using administrative tax data from 2010 to 2016, we precisely simulate the corresponding tax rebate for households in which a child was born from mid-December to mid-January. Contrary to prior research, we did not find clear evidence of a significant link between the tax rebate brought about by a supplementary dependent child on the tax return and the probability of a December birth. Either the amount of the incentive may not be large enough or households may not correctly anticipate the corresponding tax rebate. Nevertheless, a small learning effect is present. According to our results, a significant correlation between the tax rebate and the probability of having a child in December is only observed among the wealthiest half of households that also benefit from a relatively large tax rebate. However, this seems to be due to a spurious correlation. Instead, our results reflect the willingness of parents to avoid childbirth on a public holiday.
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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03157256
Contributor : Nicolas Moreau <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, March 3, 2021 - 8:44:48 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, March 10, 2021 - 3:27:37 AM

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Nicolas Moreau. The Zero Effect of Income Tax on the Timing of Birth: Some Evidence on French Data. 2021. ⟨hal-03157256⟩

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